This is a fairly self-explanatory bet type but one that can pay some brilliant odds if you manage to get it dead on. You just need to decide what the exact score will be in the game that you are interested in. It’s easy enough to make a guess, but as you can imagine, with so many factors in play, it’s not an easy task to get right at all.
This guide will share with you a few tips and strategies on how to get the most out of betting on correct score markets.
The Basics
As it is a difficult bet, when you bet on the correct score in a football match there are some good odds guaranteed. This is down to the number of potential outcomes in any given match compared to a simple result bet. A basic result win bet might come with odds of 5/4, for example, while a 1-0 correct score bet for the same match could realistically be 15/2. In this example, the same £5 bet will get returns of either £11.25 or £42.50, respectively, which as you can see is a huge difference.
The minimum odds on a correct score bet shouldn’t be lower than 5/1 so there’s nothing stopping you placing more than one bet on this market. One old tactic is to go for 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 for the team you fancy to win. You can often place bets on all three knowing that if one of them comes in you will still make a profit:
3 x bets of £1 = £3 wagered.
1 x win at 5/1 = £6 returns.
£6 – £3 = £3 profit.
Of course, if you fancy the chances of an upset in a game then there are some really excellent prices to take advantage of. If a team is odds on to win then the correct score options for their opponents are going to be very attractive indeed.
If a side is just a shade off odds on, say 19/20, their opponents might be 13/5 to win. When it comes to the correct score, however, a 1-0 win for the favourites might be 9/2 but 15/2 for the outsiders. The odds for the outsiders just keep on getting larger, especially the odds of them keeping a clean sheet, and if you really believe there’s going to be a shock result you can make a killing. This doesn’t happen often, but it makes a good headline when it does.
Entertainment Factor
Correct Score is a bet where, unless you’ve gone for a 0-0 draw, you’ll be begging for the goals to go in. If you get your wish and your predicted score is met, you will change your tune and be counting down the minutes to the final whistle and cheering every great moment of defensive play.
This is also a bet that may well end quickly. Remember that game when England played San Marino in a World Cup qualifier? Half the nation must have had bets on England to win 3-0, 4-0 and beyond. San Marino scoring in the first minute certainly ruined a lot of bets that night.
This is just one of the hazards of the correct score bet, particularly if you do go for a team to keep a clean sheet. When it comes to entertainment value, though, it packs a punch.
Do Your Research
If you’re going to have a bet on the correct score then you really need to do some research. It’s crucial because this isn’t the easiest of bets out there in the first place; it’s not just a question of guessing the result correctly but the score too, and that’s why the odds can be so rewarding.
First of all, you need to take a look at the game you want to bet on, let’s say Tottenham vs Newcastle United, and you need to let your head rule your heart and not the other way around; this is about you winning the bet, not your team winning the league.
First of all, you need to work out what you think the result of the game will be. Will Tottenham get a home win, can Newcastle go to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and get a victory, or will it be a draw?
Looking at the form book is the best way to work out broadly what’s likely to happen, although there are no guarantees. The form book can go out the window sometimes and surprise results occur.
You’ll need to look at the team’s recent form. Are Tottenham on a winning run? Do they draw too many games? What’s their home form like? Are they on a losing run? The same goes for United, except you should look at their away form.
That’s the first stage. When you’re betting on the correct score your task becomes that little bit harder, because you also need to carefully study the exact results that the teams have been having.
Will the game be a high-scoring one or a bore draw? If both sides have been regularly scoring goals then it’s unlikely to be the latter. If Tottenham have been scoring plenty of goals then have a look at who those goals have been scored against. If they have been scoring lots of goals against teams at the bottom of the table that’s good news, but will it make you bump your final score prediction up? If they have been winning but also conceding how will that affect things?
Also look at Tottenham’s home form. Teams do go through strange patches of form when they just can’t get good home results yet do well on the road. Of course, it’s the same for Newcastle United.
For instance, in the 2015/16 season Man City went through a phase when they couldn’t stop scoring at home but barely ever found the target while on their travels. The research you do will be really useful when it comes to working out what the score of a game will be.
A Quick Look at Likely Scores
The facts speak for themselves, and historically, low scoring games are more probable than high scoring ones. The most common English football result in the history of the game is 1-0.
What does that mean to us? It means that if you want to win your bet you should be looking to predict low scoring fixtures.
A huge amount of research was carried out after the 13/14 season, and some interesting findings were uncovered. The table below accounts for all games from 1888 – 2014, of which there were over 188,000:
| Score | No of Games | % of Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 30,000+ | 16 |
| 2-1 | 27,000+ | 14 |
| 2-0 | 22,000+ | 12 |
| 1-1 | 22,000+ | 12 |
This table shows that just 4 low scoring possible results make up 54% of every game ever played up to 2014. Alarm bells are ringing, huh?
In 46% of these 188,000+ games only one team managed to score, and in more than 85% of cases no team managed to bag more than 3 goals.
25% of games ended in a draw but that draw was goalless only 7% of the time, however, drawn games are on the increase.
One of the most telling stats, though, was that in every league in the country, the average number of goals per game has dwindled over the years and now sits at less than 3. So, 2 goals per game on average is what you are looking at, meaning you really should be looking for low scoring games if you want to turn a profit.
Tips & Tricks
Ok, so we have talked a little bit about this bet type and why it is a good or bad choice for you. So now let’s look at how to get the most out of any correct score bet that you make.
Where to Find Them
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As we have already established, low scoring correct score bets are statistically more successful so your next thought should be on finding them. Some European leagues are a much better hunting ground for this bet type, especially the lower leagues, so if you do a bit of research and find those which tend to score low, you are more likely to come away with a winning bet slip in your hand.
Group Betting
Remember we mentioned placing individual bets on 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 to cover a few different bases? Well that is still a valid tactic but it requires you to place three bets separately, whereas it’s also possible at some bookies to go for Correct Score Group Betting and place only one.
You are given a selection of scores – it could be Tottenham to win either 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, for example – and the odds would be something in the range of 11/4. Obviously, the odds aren’t that high but it does give you a bit of leeway because you have 3 different scores that will net you a win on a single bet; if Tottenham go 1-0 up then you’re on a winner; if they score again it’s still happy days; if United get one back then you’re still in with a chance of the 2-1 score line.
Less favourable odds but more chance of a win – and a win is still a win. Of course, your stake dictates how valuable this bet can be; in our example above a £5 bet nets £18.75 whereas a £50 bet nets £187.50.
Team News
Make sure that you take a good look at the latest team news, and pay special attention to the injury list each side has. If one team has some first team defenders side lined then consider whether their opponents may perhaps score more goals. If top strikers are out of the picture it might be an unusually low-scoring match.
There are also less important games these days when teams rest certain players if there is a big match on the horizon, so train yourself to spot a betting opportunity when you notice things like this.
For the most up to date info it’s often best leave the bet until the teams have been announced.
Rules
There aren’t that many rules attached to this kind of bet since it is so simple. It’s just a question of correctly predicting the result of the match you’re betting on. No handicaps involved, just the actual score.
The one rule you have to be aware of is that only the first 90 minutes count. Extra-time activity will not count towards your bet so if you think the score in the big match is going to be 2-2 then the scoreboard has to show this at the end of the regulation 90 minutes.
The only other rule is one of ours rather than one of the bookmaker’s – never bet on 0-0. If you want to bet on a goalless draw then place your money on no goal scorer bet instead. The odds are often the same but no goal scorer ignores own goals whereas 0-0 obviously does not, so be warned.
In-Play Betting
Now that you can bet on games as they are being played, the correct score bet has become even more interesting. Odds will fluctuate as the game progresses, and that means if your bet does go down then there’s still the chance to have another go and see if you can redeem yourself. Just make sure this doesn’t get out of hand. You can even make your first selection midway through when you feel better armed.
If you fancy Tottenham to win 2-0 in our example match, the longer the score remains at 0-0 the higher the odds on a 2-0 win for Tottenham will climb. If they suddenly go 1-0 up then the odds on 2-0 will drop. In-play betting makes life a lot more interesting for the punter.
This is also where the cash out facility becomes useful. You don’t have to wait to the end of a game to get a return on your bet. If you’ve gone for 1-0 as the final result and that’s the score after say 60 minutes, try the cash out feature and see if you can get a return that makes it worth ending the bet early. After all, it could be 1-1 a few minutes down the line and all will be lost.
Betting in play and using cash out successfully is all about timing.
Conclusion
As you can see this isn’t an easy bet but it can be a very lucrative one if you get it right. You need to do some research and work out what kind of game it is you’re going to be betting on. A game with lots of goals in it or a low-scoring bore draw? It might not feel so boring if you walk away from it richer than you went in.
The availability of stats has never been so good and they have never been easier to access either, so despite the barriers there is a lot of info out there to help you on your way. Add to this in-play betting and the arrival of cash out and you have never had it so good.
Just remember you need to think about this not as a football fan but as a football bettor – be clear about the sort of games you are looking for and be selective.