Winning streaks have always fascinated people, sparking debates about the role of skill and luck in achieving such remarkable runs of success. Whilst it is generally agreed that fixed-odds gaming relies heavily on luck, the argument becomes more nuanced in the context of sports.
If you spend hours pouring over the form of a group of horses, for example, learning how each of them tends to perform in different conditions, is it really a matter of luck if that horse then wins its race after you’ve placed a bet on it? Obviously there is some fortune involved, but it’s mostly down to the skill of the punter.
If you then stretch that out over a number of different races, does the fact that you’ve continued to win mean that you’re touched with good fortune or that you’ve researched what it is that you’re betting on? Whilst that it clear when it comes to something like horse racing, the same questions can be asked of the likes of betting on football or tennis.
There is plenty of information out there for punters to turn to before they place their wagers, if they’re willing to do the research. For those that do, winning isn’t as much about luck as hard work. That differs depending on what you’re betting on, though.
Fixed-Odds Gaming Is Primarily Luck
In fixed-odds gaming, whether it be slot machines, roulette or other casino games, winning streaks are commonly attributed to luck. The outcomes are pre-determined and players have little to no control over the results. Unless rare malfunctions or cheating are involved, winning streaks in this domain are purely chance-based.
The odds are designed to favour the House, leaving players at the mercy of fate. While some may argue that strategies and systems can increase one’s chances, the underlying randomness of these games ultimately determines the outcome of each wager.
If you spend all night at the roulette table, say, then the likelihood is that you will leave with less money than you arrived with. This doesn’t always happen, simply on account of how the House’s Edge works, but it is more likely than you winning vast sums of money.
The Edge is something that plays out over many hours of play, so you might well end up with money in your pocket at the end but it is only because several other people haven’t. Unless you’ve cheated, there is next to nothing that you’ve done in order to ensure that it is skill rather than simple fortune that has seen you emerge with money.
Sports Offer A Blurred Line Between Skill & Luck
When it comes to sports, the dynamics of winning streaks become more complex. Whilst luck undeniably plays a significant role, the human factor and the potential for skilful play introduce an element of unpredictability.
Take Liverpool’s record in the 2020-2021 season, for example. From a previous pattern of results, no one would have predicted the remarkable run that followed the 7-0 win over Crystal Palace, in which the Reds lost eight of their following 14 matches. Similarly, the subsequent eight wins in the last ten games would have been difficult to foresee after the losing streak.
If you had been betting on Liverpool to win after their 7-0 win at Selhurst Park, no one would’ve thought of you as mad. Equally, by the time the Merseyside club lost their fourth game in a row, you would’ve been forgiven for placing a bet on the opposition, only for Liverpool to win that match and lose the two that followed.
Very obviously, you’d have needed a remarkable bit of fortune to correctly predict the run of matches that happened for Liverpool that season, with skill not able to account for everything if you had won all of your bets on the defending champions.
Pattern Recognition & The Human Factor
Humans have an inherent tendency to seek patterns and make predictions based on past outcomes. This inclination is especially prevalent when analysing sports performances. Fans and pundits often scrutinise statistics and historical data, trying to identify trends that could explain or forecast winning streaks.
However, sports are characterised by their unpredictability, with countless variables at play. The mental and physical state of individual players, team dynamics, weather conditions, injuries and numerous other factors can significantly impact the outcome of a game.
Thus, whilst patterns may emerge, they can only offer a limited understanding of the complex dynamics that determine winning streaks. You can do a wealth of research before placing a bet, but the number of things can influence its outcome can’t possibly all be taken account of without at least a touch of fortune being involved.
To then stretch that out of a long enough period of time for it to be called a ‘streak’ would mean that a large dose of fortune would have played as much of a part in the betting as the simple act of researching possible outcomes.
The Role of Skill & Objectivity
Despite the inherent unpredictability of sports, skill and objectivity can influence the occurrence and duration of winning streaks. Highly skilled athletes and teams have a greater potential to achieve consistent success due to their exceptional abilities, training and strategic decision-making.
A tennis player with exceptional shot accuracy, for example, or a basketball team with strong defensive tactics can tilt the odds in their favour. Objectivity is also crucial, as it allows players and teams to make rational decisions based on analysis and assessment of their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.
By objectively evaluating the situation and making informed choices, a team or player can increase their chances of maintaining a winning streak. With that being the case, there is no reason why a bettor can’t do the same thing and correctly identify when the tide is likely to turn, getting off the train as a result and avoiding the wreck that will follow.
That is to say, you might not be able to use your objectivity to consistently predict the right bet to place, but using it to know when to stop betting is almost as important for punters looking to maintain their balance.
It is also essential to recognise that even the most skilled and objective individuals or teams are not immune to the whims of luck. Sports, by their very nature, involve a level of uncertainty and unexpected events. A single moment of brilliance or a stroke of misfortune can completely change the course of a game and potentially disrupt a winning streak.
Therefore, whilst skill and objectivity can enhance the likelihood of success, they do not guarantee a continuous series of victories either for the sports people involved or for the punter betting on them.
In contrast to fixed-odds gaming, sports offer a unique advantage in the form of opportunities for knowledge and research. Punters and analysts can delve into the vast amount of data available, studying player and team statistics, match histories and tactical strategies. By leveraging this information, they can identify potential edges and make more informed betting decisions.
This, in turn, can contribute to the formation of winning streaks based on a combination of skill, research and a touch of luck. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that for most sports punters, achieving a winning streak based purely on knowledge and research is a rare occurrence.
The highly unpredictable nature of sports makes it challenging to consistently predict outcomes with absolute certainty. Whilst individuals may experience temporary winning streaks due to their expertise, they are more likely to attribute their success to luck rather than skill.
Luck remains an influential factor in the world of sports betting and acknowledging its role is crucial for maintaining a realistic perspective. If you think that everything that you do is down to skill then you’re likely to end up over-estimating your ability, whilst if you think it’s all down to fortune then you might end up not placing bets that you know are the right ones to place.